Skip to content
Subscribe

6 Political Axioms that Could Help Us Predict the Winner of the 2016 Election

6 Political Axioms that Could Help Us Predict the Winner of the 2016 Election
Published:

With only a few short days left in this presidential election cycle, it's always interesting to look at the political axioms, however odd or strange, to see how each candidate is doing.

While these axioms are not by any means determinants of the election, some have political insight -- while others are absurdly fun to consider.

1. High Prices at the Pump Hurt the Incumbent Party

This is more of a new political axiom, for decades the prices of oil and gasoline held steady or at least paced with overall inflation.

The gasoline spikes of the 1990s, followed by the overwhelming gasoline prices in 2008 definitely set up a pattern -- the incumbent party is blamed when voters' wallets hurt at the pump.

Gas prices have been lower throughout 2016, with the national price hovering at $2.21 per gallon.

Many realities in geopolitics have supported this, with many countries still in a 'pump at any price' mentality to boost cash reserves.

While the days of decades long $1.00 per gallon gasoline are far gone, the current price is definitely not a serious cause for anyone to blame the incumbents for expensive gas.

2. Incumbents Can't Win Without a 60% Approval Rating of the POTUS

President Obama's approval rating has held steady in the mid-50's for months, but can't seem to get past the 60% hurdle.

Sure, Congress still has an abysmal approval rating, not breaking 20 percent for three-straight years -- but will this affect what has otherwise been a 'perfect' axiom of presidential predictors?

Disaffection with Congress may flip at least one chamber, but who knows what will happen with President Obama's split approval.

3. Unpopular Wars and Lack of Strategy Damages Incumbents

Since the Korean War, unpopular and 'unwinnable' wars have damaged incumbents.

President Eisenhower's single greatest statement of his 1952 campaign was that he would 'go to Korea,' and see first hand what could be done to break the stalemate.

Americans found comfort in that, and today is really no different -- though we don't have a great military leader running for office.

We are a nation that is becoming war weary, almost to the point of seeing our military actions in the Middle East as status quo.

Like 1952, we need answers to break the stalemate.

4. Challenging Party Surges in the Last Few Weeks of the Race

All too many outlets were caught 'looking dumb' with their polls having Mitt Romney ahead by 2 points during the last few weeks of the 2012 presidential cycle.

It just seems to happen this way, with no good reason. However, as with anything, the polls are just tools, not precise measurements of America.

Strangely, it seems, that some of the most accurate polling in post mortem analysis tends to be August and September's polls, with October polls susceptible to this strange phenomenon.

5. The Taller Candidate Wins Most of the Time

In fairness, the previous elections have all been between men, but physical stature seems to play a role.

With Donald Trump towering at 6'3" this may in all reality be the greatest spread between any two candidates -- with Hillary Clinton coming in at 5' 5."

Clinton has exploited this height disadvantage a few times, especially during the debates when she placed herself between the camera and Donald Trump -- giving the appearance of him 'lurching' even when he was standing at his own podium.

Idealized body form has been an important part of a leader's qualities since the most ancient of times. In 21st century America, we still haven't lost this 'need' to connect with our leaders on the physical level.

6. The World Series is Indicating a Hard Fought Race for Both Sides

One of the goofier political axioms is the World Series outcome -- where the location of each team on the red/blue map has 'predictive' powers.

This year, the Chicago Cubs in deep blue territory face off with the Cleveland Indians -- from toss-up Ohio.

With the Cubs now only one game away from elimination, this axiom plays into a lot of America's worst fears -- that the election is anyone's game.


While these axioms are fun to consider, there's one that should shock and even appall Americans -- over 40 percent of eligible voters choose to not cast a ballot in the presidential elections.

Greater voter participation would fundamentally alter the entire political landscape in America, but we simply don't use the simplest of American rights to change our political future.

It's not just this generation. The highest voter turnout ever was in 1860 with 80.1 percent of the eligible voters casting ballots. But otherwise, voter engagement hovers in the mid-50's for presidential races, high 40's for mid-terms.

We need a new axiom in America -- that we have a population that cares enough about our future to get to the polls each and every election.

This would set into motion a completely unpredictable new world of politics -- and who would really know what the end result would be?

But it would be the people's choice, not the parties, political PACs, billionaire political donors, or 'party faithful.'

We need an engaged America, one that tackles the issues of the day, not the party-line ramblings and campaign messages.

One certainty is clear: if Americans started voting in droves, we'd have scared politicians, ones who actually tried to figure out what the voters wanted.

And how could that be a bad thing?

Photo Credit: Andrey_Popov / shutterstock.com

Adhere to the IVN etiquette

By posting a comment, you agree to adhere to our etiquette rules: No partisan attacks, no personal attacks, substantiate your sources, no self-promotion.

Contact IVN

Questions about this article or our coverage? Send us a message. A free IVN member account is required.

Message sent

Thanks, we’ll review it and get back to you if needed.

Message not sent

Sorry, something went wrong. Please try again.

Sign in to send a message

Messages are tied to your IVN member account. Signing in is free and takes a few seconds.

Contact IVN

Questions about this article or our coverage? Send us a message. A free IVN member account is required.

Message sent

Thanks, we’ll review it and get back to you if needed.

Message not sent

Sorry, something went wrong. Please try again.

Sign in to send a message

Messages are tied to your IVN member account. Signing in is free and takes a few seconds.

Republish this article

Republishing guidelines

Republish IVN articles for free. Independent Voter News articles may be republished online or in print under a Creative Commons BY-NC-ND 4.0 license, on these terms:

  1. Credit the author and IVN. Keep the byline ("By Author Name, Independent Voter News") and the attribution note at the end, which links to the original.
  2. Keep the meaning. You may update time and place references and apply your house style. You may trim for length, as long as the cuts don't change the meaning or misrepresent the author. Keep the headline. Mark any additions as your own (for example "Additional reporting by ...").
  3. Translations are welcome. Translate faithfully, add "Translated from English by [your outlet]", and tell us at editor@ivn.us.
  4. Keep the links, including the link to the original article.
  5. Keep the tracking image. The HTML includes a 1-pixel image that counts readers on your page. It collects no personal information.
  6. Photos and illustrations. Images credited to IVN may be used with this article only. Images credited to others (AP, Getty, Unsplash, Wikimedia and so on) stay under their owners' terms. Secure the rights or switch "Include images" off.
  7. Don't sell it. You can't sell our articles or sell ads specifically against them. Your normal site advertising is fine.
  8. No implied endorsement. Don't suggest that IVN or the author endorses you, your candidates or your causes, or that donations to you support IVN.
  9. Keep labels. Opinion or analysis pieces keep that label.
  10. Point search engines to the original. Where your CMS allows, set the canonical URL to the original IVN article.
  11. No bulk or automated republishing, and don't submit our articles to aggregators (Apple News, Google News, MSN) as your own.
  12. Corrections and removals. Update your copy when we correct it, and remove it promptly if we ask. We'll contact you at the email you give us.
  13. Questions or print republication: editor@ivn.us.

IVN staff: fill in who you're inviting above, then create the invite.

Preparing the article

6 Political Axioms that Could Help Us Predict the Winner of the 2016 Election

Choose a format
  • HTML
  • Email HTML
  • Markdown
  • Formatted (.docx)
  • Plain text
  • WordPress blocks
  • PDF
Choose a platform

Photos credited to others need their owners' permission.

To for

Republishing somewhere else? Questions? editor@ivn.us