I predicted three weeks ago that Hillary would sweep the South in her bid to become the next president. It was an educated guess, for sure, but there were a lot of contributing factors that made me openly make the prediction:
- it takes a 'southerner' -- even a New York expatriate southerner -- for the Democrats to win in the South;
- The voting demographics are different in the South, not as many young voters;
- Sanders has never had to 'win' the minority vote in any contest he's been in; and
- The Clinton family has good name recognition in the South since Bill Clinton's presidency and governorship.
But now, only a day away from the election, three major polls back up this prediction -- with Clinton having run-away leads in Georgia, Tennessee, and the big prize, Texas.
While all of these states will be proportionally allocated, Clinton could rack up an incredible lead in delegates with a near 2-1 lead in Texas. Coupled with her leads in other states, she could become the clear-cut leader with an insurmountable lead after Super Tuesday.
Now, I was expecting Sanders to sweep New England, but recent polls show Clinton with the slightest of edges -- well within the margin off error. And Bernie will definitely take Vermont, with a locked-in prospect of winning.
Minnesota has been trending for Sanders, but his edge has trended downwards for weeks (with no good polls in the last few days). My prediction has been that the Rust Belt isn't going to be taken by a pledge of "HOPE," but instead with the hope of a real economic plan that could actually make it through Congress. Colorado seems to be trending Sanders as well, but not in grand-slam proportions.
I'm definitely not a Hillary supporter, and have expected from the beginning that she would have a 2008-style implosion of campaigning, but this year the map is friendly to her and she is winning where it counts and where it's needed big.
As IVN contributor Mike Austin pointed out, Hillary's baggage might be her best asset this race. It's fully out there, nothing is going to surprise the base or the valuable swing-votes. No one else has been fully vetted.
Only now is Trump's finances, his Trump University, and affiliations to groups being questioned. Even a small defection from the valuable swing votes will hurt his general election chances. Cruz will face the same birther nonsense Obama did, but with the added twist that we actually know he wasn't born in the U.S. And Sanders is going to face a lot of scrutiny for his borderline Communist past, as well as (right or wrong) his religious practices.
But with the superdelegates in play, Hillary is definitely poised to potentially lock up a sizable winning lead Tuesday, something that seems totally out of reach for Sanders to attain.