With exactly one week left until Election Day, voters are scrambling for information and initiative campaigns and candidates are pushing to provide it. The California Business Roundtable and Pepperdine University have released their final bi-monthly initiative survey series on the California Ballot Propositions before the election.
2115 likely California General Election voters took an online opinion poll between October 21 and 28. Voters self-identified and read a "ballot initiative" page. They then recorded how they would vote given the current information provided by a review of the ballot label and arguments, as presented by the proponents. The margin of error is 3 percent.
For a visualization of the California Ballot Proposition survey results, click here.
In a press release issued this morning, California Business Roundtable President Rob Lapsley said, “As we approach Election Day, voters are starting to finalize their choices as campaigns make their closing arguments. We’ve seen hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising hit the airwaves and online media over the last few weeks that is clearly shaping voters final decisions.”
The release goes on to say:
Both Propositions 30 and 38 are at 49.2% and 33.0% support respectively. “Voters who have chosen to support or oppose these initiatives feel strongly about their choices,” said Dr. Chris Condon, M4 Strategies. “Prop 30 is clearly going down to the wire and is too close to call.” Proposition 32 declined to 44.7% support. “With millions of spending on both sides, it’s clear that Proposition 32 will remain a battle until Election Day,” said Dr. Michael Shires of Pepperdine University. The survey also found support for Proposition 37 continuing to drop. “Proposition 37 dropped another 9 points,” added Condon. “It seems voters have been influenced by both the no campaign and a barrage of negative editorials.”
Results are as follows:
Proposition 30 - TEMPORARY TAXES TO FUND EDUCATION. GUARANTEED LOCAL PUBLIC SAFETY FUNDING. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.
YES: 49.2
NO: 42.9
Proposition 31 - STATE BUDGET. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT AND STATUTE.
YES: 37.8
NO: 36.8
Proposition 32 - POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS BY PAYROLL DEDUCTION. CONTRIBUTIONS TO CANDIDATES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
YES: 44.7
NO: 44.8
Proposition 33- AUTO INSURANCE COMPANIES. PRICES BASED ON DRIVER'S HISTORY OF INSURANCE COVERAGE. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
YES: 48.8
NO: 37.4
Proposition 34 - DEATH PENALTY. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
YES: 41.3
NO: 47.9
Proposition 35 - HUMAN TRAFFICKING. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
YES: 76.5
NO: 13.7
Proposition 36 - THREE STRIKES LAW. REPEAT FELONY OFFENDERS. PENALTIES. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
YES: 67.4
NO: 22.0
Proposition 37 - GENETICALLY ENGINEERED FOODS. LABELING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
YES: 39.1
NO: 50.5
Proposition 38 - TAX TO FUND EDUCATION AND EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAMS. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
YES: 33.0
NO: 54.1
Proposition 39 - TAX TREATMENT FOR MULTISTATE BUSINESSES. CLEAN ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FUNDING. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
YES: 54.5
NO: 28.5
Proposition 40 - REDISTRICTING. STATE SENATE DISTRICTS. REFERENDUM.
YES: 48.2
NO: 24.8