Shawn Griffiths
NEW YORK CITY, N.Y. - A Marist College poll released Wednesday found that former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has emerged as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor – which would make him the odds-on favorite to unseat Mayor Eric Adams.
According to the poll. Cuomo is the first-choice candidate for 37% of likely Democratic primary voters, including those who are currently undecided but leaning toward a candidate. His closest challenger, State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, garnered 18%.
All other candidates remained in the single digits.
Cuomo Never Loses His Lead Under Ranked Choice Voting
The poll did more than survey NYC Democrats on their first-choice selection.
The Democratic primary will use ranked choice voting (RCV), giving voters the option to rank candidates on the ballot in order of preference (1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, etc.). Marist also used RCV when surveying Democratic voters.
Under the voting method, all first-choice selections are counted. If no candidate has over 50% in the first round, an instant runoff kicks in that eliminates the last place candidate and redistributes their voters’ next choice to the results.
Subsequent elimination rounds are conducted as needed until a single candidate has over 50% of the vote. The Democratic primary field for NYC mayor is large, meaning it is unlikely a candidate will get a majority of first-choice selections.
Voters should expect multiple rounds of RCV tabulation.
According to Marist, Cuomo’s lead holds strong when voters' ranked preferences are considered. Under RCV simulations, Cuomo ultimately crosses the 50% threshold in the fifth round, securing 53% of likely Democratic primary voters.
Mamdani finishes with 29%, and New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who begins the race with 8% support, concludes with 18%.
Cuomo served as governor of New York from January 2011 until he resigned in August 2021 under numerous allegations of sexual misconduct. He entered the NYC mayoral race on March 1 and has risen to the status of frontrunner despite some campaign missteps.
For example, his campaign missed out on $3 million in public matching funds over a paperwork blunder and more than $600,000 because he was suspected of colluding directly with a super PAC, which is illegal under campaign finance rules.
Cuomo remarked that he will run as an independent no matter what happens in the primary, hinting at a possible independent bid if he loses the June election. He released a statement, saying:
"Over the last several months, as I've been out talking to New Yorkers, one thing has become clear: there is a disillusionment with the Democratic Party by some—a feeling that the party has been hijacked, that it doesn't produce real results, and that it doesn't fight for working people anymore.”
He added that the 2024 election was proof of his claim and noted that 500,000 Democratic voters in New York City chose to sit home on Election Day instead of casting a ballot for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
This strategy to appeal to independents may be an attempt to counter Mayor Eric Adams, who dropped out of the Democratic primary to run for re-election as an independent.
Primary elections in NYC will be held on June 24. They are closed to registered party members -- meaning only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary, which will produce the odds-on favorite to win the mayoral election.